《火灾科学（中英文）》编辑部

田小慧,吴超.系统安全相似分析法及其应用[J].火灾科学,2018,27(3):181-187.

系统安全相似分析法及其应用

Safety similarity analysis method and its application

投稿时间：2017-06-13 修订日期：2017-11-17

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1004-5309.2018.03.08

基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目（51534008）；国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFC0802501）；中南大学研究生科研创新项目（1053320171203）

作者	单位
田小慧	中南大学资源与安全工程学院，长沙，410083
吴超	中南大学资源与安全工程学院，长沙，410083

中文关键词: 相似安全系统学系统安全相似性分析相似度计算

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中文摘要:

系统安全相似分析法是发掘共性事故致因，运用逻辑学和数学方法解决安全问题的方法。通过评价比较分析法、比较安全法、模糊相似分析法与系统相似分析法的优缺点，采用多隶属模糊集对系统相似分析法进行改进，克服其无法度量模糊因素相似性的缺陷，得到适用于模糊系统的系统安全相似分析法。基于此，建立系统安全相似度计算数学模型，并构建系统安全相似分析范式。将改进的分析方法应用于4起典型煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故，分析得出，越界开采、井下密闭作业、应急救援不力、密不上报、拒不撤出作业人员等是造成瓦斯爆炸事故严重程度升级的主要因素；物质流、能量流、信息流相似度接近于1，然而其对造成事故的潜在影响受到忽视，是煤矿避免瓦斯爆炸事故的极佳着手点。结果表明，这一改进有效实现了事故致因因素的相似性度量，为系统安全分析与事故预防提供了新思路与新方法。

英文摘要:

Safety similarity analysis method for systems can explore the accident-causing factors and address safety issues by logistics and mathematical methods. This paper evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of similarity comparative analysis, safety comparison, fuzzy similarity measurement, and system similarity analysis. The fuzzy sets method is used to improve the safety similarity analysis method. The improved safety similarity analysis method overcomes the defects of fuzzy factors that are impossible to measure and is applied to fuzzy systems. A mathematic model and the analysis canonical form are built to quantify the similarity extent of accidents. Finally, gas explosion accidents are used to examine the improved method. The results show that the main causes of accident escalation are cross-border mining, working in confined spaces, invalid emergency rescue and putting workers at risk. The similarity of material flow, energy flow and information flow is close to 1. However, the potential impact of the flow on causing accidents has been ignored, which is the key direction to avoid gas explosion in coal mines. The raised method is feasible and practical to achieve quantitative similarity measurement of accident-causing factors.

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