| 王自龙,蒋勇.某储罐区火灾多米诺效应场景推演[J].火灾科学,2021,30(1):54-62. |
| 某储罐区火灾多米诺效应场景推演 |
| Domino effect scenario deduction of tank fire |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1004-5309.2021.01.08 |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0801505) |
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| 中文关键词: 储罐火灾 多米诺效应 贝叶斯网络 蒙特卡洛模拟 |
| 英文关键词:Tank fire Domino effect Bayesian network Monte Carlo simulation |
| 摘要点击次数: 448 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 化工园区中危险源众多,一旦发生事故很容易在整个园区内蔓延和发展。针对化工园区内储罐密集,容易引发连锁反应导致事故扩大的特点,利用FDS软件对储罐火灾场景进行数值模拟,根据储罐所受热辐射确定化工园区内储罐火灾最可能的事故发生序列,并引入基于设备失效前时间的机械设备故障概率模型对罐区内单个储罐的火灾风险进行研究,得到储罐区火灾多米诺效应的时空演变。以某储罐区火灾为例,对多米诺效应下的火灾场景进行推演,结果表明该方法可以准确地预测多米诺效应过程中储罐的火灾风险,为化工园区应急响应提供有效支持。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| There are many sources of danger in a chemical industry park. Once an accident occurs, it is easy to spread and develop throughout the park. The FDS software is used in this paper to simulate the storage tank fire scenario numerically, to investigate the characteristics of dense storage tanks in the chemical park that is easy to cause a chain reaction and cause accidents to expand. The most likely accident sequence of the storage tank fire in the chemical industry park is determined according to the thermal radiation received by the storage tank. Meanwhile, a mechanical equipment failure probability model based on the time to failure is introduced to study the fire risk of a single storage tank and predict the spatiotemporal evolution of the fire domino effect in the storage area. Taking a fire in a tank farm as an example, the fire scene under the domino effect is deduced, and the results show that the method can accurately predict the fire risk of the storage tank during the domino effect process and provide effective support for the emergency response of the chemical park. |
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