| 陈星百,王子云,张城,向月.基于数据统计和贝叶斯网络的化工行业火灾风险因素分析[J].火灾科学,2023,32(4):252-258. |
| 基于数据统计和贝叶斯网络的化工行业火灾风险因素分析 |
| Analysis of fire hazard factors in chemical industry based on statistics and Bayesian network |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1004-5309.2023.04.06 |
| 基金项目:四川省重点研发计划项目(2021YFS0362) |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 陈星百 | 四川大学建筑与环境学院,成都,610065
宜宾四川大学产业技术研究院,宜宾,644002 | | 王子云* | 四川大学建筑与环境学院,成都,610065
宜宾四川大学产业技术研究院,宜宾,644002 | | 张城 | 四川大学建筑与环境学院,成都,610065
宜宾四川大学产业技术研究院,宜宾,644002 | | 向月 | 四川大学建筑与环境学院,成都610065 |
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| 中文关键词: 火灾风险管理 火灾统计 风险因素划分 事故分析 贝叶斯网络模型 |
| 英文关键词:Fire risk management Fire statistics Risk factor classification Accident analysis Bayesian network |
| 摘要点击次数: 339 |
| 全文下载次数: 1603 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 化工行业火灾严重威胁着人民的生命财产安全。为加强化工行业火灾安全管理,统计了过去20年的化工行业火灾事故数据,据此分析化工行业的火灾风险因素。根据统计数据,将化工行业的工业过程分为了四个阶段,并划分了五个主要火灾风险因素和18个次级火灾风险因素,分析得出了化工行业火灾防控的重点,提出相应的措施以保证化工行业的火灾消防安全。同时利用贝叶斯网络进行了分析,得出了基于数据驱动的各个阶段火灾概率以及各风险因素对生产安全问题的影响程度,可以作为后续风险评估等工作的参考,为今后化工行业火灾方向的评估研究提供思路。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Fire in chemical industry is a serious threat to the life and property safety of people. In order to strengthen the fire safety management of chemical industry, the fire accident data of chemical industry in the past 20 years are counted, and the fire risk factors are analyzed. According to the statistical data, the industrial process of chemical industry is divided into four stages, and five main fire risk factors and 18 secondary fire risk factors are concluded. The key points of fire prevention and control in chemical industry are obtained, and the corresponding measures are put forward to ensure the fire safety of chemical industry. At the same time, the fire probability of each stage and the impact index of risk factors are obtained by using Bayesian network analysis based on data driving, which can be used as a reference for the subsequent risk assessment and other work, and provide ideas for the future research on the direction of fire in the chemical industry. |
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