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| 基于双重差分法的野火气候适应策略有效性研究 |
| Study on the effectiveness of wildfire climate adaptation strategies based on the DID |
| 投稿时间：2025-02-21 修订日期：2025-06-16 |
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| DOI： |
| 基金项目:深圳市孔雀计划科研启动基金(827-000837)、深圳大学与岭南大学学术合作研究项目(868-000002050202)；深圳市稳定支持面上项目(868-000001032135) |
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| 中文关键词: 野火、气候适应策略、自然灾害治理、欧盟LIFE计划、双重差分法 |
| 英文关键词:Wildfires, climate adaptation strategies, natural disaster management, EU LIFE program, DID |
| 摘要点击次数: 274 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在全球气候变化加剧野火危害的背景下，针对我国森林草原火灾管控对气候适应策略有效性认识不足的问题，研究系统探讨野火气候适应策略的效应机制，为降低野火风险、推进美丽中国建设和提升国家治理能力现代化提供理论支撑。研究以欧盟LIFE计划为研究对象，整合2018-2024年欧盟野火与环境数据，运用双重差分法（DID），从社区和区域两个层面评估2021年欧盟气候战略适应性转向的政策效应。研究将野火气候适应策略划分为监测预警、协同立法、社区动员和设施建设四类，并从前置禀赋、救援窗口、交界蔓延和风险级联效应维度进行机制分析。结果显示（1）社区动员、设施建设和监测预警策略在社区层面效应显著；（2）协同立法、社区动员和监测预警策略在区域层面有效；（3）气候适应策略存在显著的尺度效应差异，社区层面主要表现为"设施场"效应，区域层面则呈现"政策区"效应。在实际应用中应根据防控对象的空间尺度特征选择适宜的策略组合。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Against the backdrop of intensified global climate change and the insufficient understanding of the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies for forest and grassland fire control in China, this study systematically explores the mechanism of the effects of wildfire climate adaptation strategies, providing theoretical support for reducing wildfire risks, promoting the construction of a beautiful China, and enhancing the modernization of national governance capacity. The study takes the EU LIFE program as the research object, integrates EU wildfire and environmental data from 2018 to 2024, and uses the difference in differences (DID) method to evaluate the policy effects of the 2021 EU climate strategy adaptation shift from the community and regional levels. The study divides climate adaptation strategies for wildfires into four categories: monitoring and early warning, collaborative legislation, community mobilization, and facility construction, and analyzes the mechanisms from the dimensions of pre endowment, rescue window, boundary spread, and risk cascade effects. The results show that (1) community mobilization, facility construction, and monitoring and early warning strategies have significant effects at the community level; (2) Collaborative legislation, community mobilization, and monitoring and early warning strategies are effective at the regional level; (3) There are significant scale effect differences in climate adaptation strategies, with the community level mainly exhibiting the "facility field" effect, while the regional level presents the "policy area" effect. In practical applications, appropriate strategy combinations should be selected based on the spatial scale characteristics of the prevention and control targets. |
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