《火灾科学（中英文）》编辑部

王彦富,王雅萱,王意如,张浩然,邹丽.基于船舶运输汽车火灾事故统计的概率风险评估[J].火灾科学,2025,34(2):151-160.

基于船舶运输汽车火灾事故统计的概率风险评估

Probabilistic risk assessment based on statistical analysis of vehicle-carrying ship fire accidents

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1004-5309.2025.02.09

基金项目:欧盟框架计划“Horizon2020”项目(H2020-MSCA-IF-2018-840425);国家自然科学基金面上项目(52171353,52471387);化学品安全全国重点实验室开放课题(24CX02024A);水路交通控制全国重点实验室开放课题(29-19-2)

作者	单位
王彦富	1. 中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院,青岛,266580
王雅萱	1. 中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院,青岛,266580
王意如	1. 中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院,青岛,266580
张浩然	1. 中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院,青岛,266580
邹丽	2. 上海同泰火安科技有限公司,上海,201703

中文关键词: 船舶运输汽车火灾事故案例统计分析 T-S模糊故障树贝叶斯模型

英文关键词:Vehicle-carrying ship fire Accident case Statistical analysis T-S Fuzzy fault tree Bayes model

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中文摘要:

近年来,船舶运输汽车火灾事故频发,造成重大财产损失和人员伤亡,对航运业和监管部门提出了新的挑战。为此,首先统计了2012年~2023年之间的船舶运输汽车火灾事故案例,详细分析并筛选出9项致灾因子;其次以致灾因子为基本事件,结合实际案例构建T-S模糊故障树,考虑节点多种故障状态对系统的影响,确定T-S模糊门;在此基础上构建贝叶斯网络模型,确定条件概率表,运用贝叶斯网络正向推理,定量预测船舶运输汽车火灾事故概率,同时运用反向推理确定致灾因子的重要度。研究结果表明电气故障是导致船舶运输汽车火灾事故的主要原因。该方法能够真实有效地确定船舶运输汽车火灾致灾因子,评估船舶运输汽车火灾的概率,并为船舶运输汽车行业的风险管控提供决策支持。

英文摘要:

In recent years, frequent fires on ships transporting automobiles have caused significant property losses and casualties, posing new challenges to the shipping industry and regulatory authorities. To address this issue, we first compiled a list of fire incidents on ships transporting automobiles from 2012 to 2023, and then conducted a detailed analysis to identify nine key factors contributing to these fires. Next, we constructed a T-S fuzzy fault tree using these factors as basic events, and incorporated actual cases to determine the T-S fuzzy gates, taking into account the impact of multiple fault states of nodes on the system. On this basis, we established a Bayesian network model, determined the conditional probability table, and used forward reasoning of the Bayesian network to quantitatively predict the probability of fire incidents on ships transporting automobiles. At the same time, we used backward reasoning to determine the importance of the contributing factors. The research results show that electrical faults are the main cause of fire incidents on ships transporting automobiles. This method can effectively and accurately identify the contributing factors of fire incidents on ships transporting automobiles, assess the probability of such incidents, and provide decision support for risk management in the shipping industry of automobiles.

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