| 王晓雪,王承伟,于敏,赵美玲,齐铎,王深义.森林火点蔓延趋势预报气象模型研究[J].火灾科学,2025,34(4):282-288. |
| 森林火点蔓延趋势预报气象模型研究 |
| Preliminary study on forecast model of forest fire spread trend in Heilongjiang Province |
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| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1004-5309.2025.04.03 |
| 基金项目:风云卫星应用先行计划项目(FY-APP-2021.0303);黑龙江省气象局竞争性科技攻关项目暨中国气象局东北地区生态气象创新开放实验室开放研究基金项目(HQGG202003);黑龙江省自然科学基金联合引导项目(LH2022D021);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J011);东北亚冷涡对黑龙江地区气温降水的影响(2019QYLH1-3) |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 王晓雪 | 1. 海南省海洋经济发展与资源保护研究院, 海口, 570125
2. 黑龙江省气象台, 哈尔滨, 150030 | | 王承伟** | 2. 黑龙江省气象台, 哈尔滨, 150030
3. 黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨, 150030 | | 于敏 | 4. 黑龙江省生态气象中心, 哈尔滨, 150030 | | 赵美玲 | 2. 黑龙江省气象台, 哈尔滨, 150030 | | 齐铎 | 2. 黑龙江省气象台, 哈尔滨, 150030 | | 王深义 | 2. 黑龙江省气象台, 哈尔滨, 150030 |
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| 中文关键词: 黑龙江省火点蔓延系数 蔓延速度 趋势预报 |
| 英文关键词:Fire spread coefficient in Heilongjiang Province Spread rate Trend forecast |
| 摘要点击次数: 16 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 使用常规观测资料、中国气象局陆面数据同化系统实时产品数据集、STRM数据、黑龙江省生态遥感中心卫星连续跟踪资料以及黑龙江森林防火办公室火场态势图及卫星资料,以沿风向蔓延火点速度为出发点,分别应用经验公式模型和风速比例模型对黑龙江省火点蔓延趋势进行研究,结果表明:依据经验公式模型将初始蔓延速度与可燃物燃烧状况系数的乘积重新定义为黑龙江省火点蔓延系数R1,根据系数经验公式计算结果取2.0 m/min,在实际预报中可根据已经出现的火点进行实时运算。模型二通过计算蔓延速度与风速比例,可知小风速情况下,蔓延速度与风速比值为0.03左右;而风速越大,蔓延速度增加得越快,当瞬时风速达到11级时,蔓延速度与风速比可达0.3左右。同时利用Python-Basemap进行可视化处理生成预报产品,实现对林火蔓延的趋势模拟,可视化表达火点位置和蔓延趋势等。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In this paper, focusing on fire spread speed in the wind direction, the empirical formula model and the wind-speed-proportional model are used to examine the fire spread trend in Heilongjiang Province. The data used include conventional observation data, the real-time product data set of the China Meteorological Administration's land surface data assimilation system, STRM data, satellite continuous tracking data from the Heilongjiang Ecological Remote Sensing Centre, and fire situation maps and satellite data from the Heilongjiang Forest Fire Prevention Office. The results show that the product of the initial spread speed and the combustible combustion status coefficient is redefined as the fire spread coefficient in Heilongjiang Province based on the empirical formula model. The coefficient is temporarily set to 2.0 m/min based on the coefficient back calculation results. In the actual forecast, the real-time correction calculation can be performed based on the fire point that has appeared. The second model calculates the ratio of spreading speed to wind speed, and it shows that at low wind speeds, the ratio is about 0.03; as wind speed increases, spreading speed increases faster. When the instantaneous wind speed reaches level 11, the ratio of spreading speed to wind speed is up to about 0.3. For the sake of model stability and accuracy, the empirical formula model is temporarily selected as the basis for fire-spreading trend forecasting in Heilongjiang Province. Python-Basemap is used for visualisation to generate forecast products, enabling trend simulation of forest fire spread and visually expressing fire locations and spread trends. |
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